CHARM model BLEVE catastrophic failure – theoretical outcomes for East Palestine, Ohio

There has been a lot of armchair quarterbacking regarding the decision to Vent & Burn the VC railcars in East Palestine, OH. My personal and professional opinion, knowing what I knew at the time, was that V&B was the correct decision.

These decisions are always challenging to make, but failing to perform V&B on these cars left the potential for a BLEVE (of sorts) to occur. I have posted pictures of the Railcar Polymerization event from the 1980’s, showing the catastrophic damage these events can cause for great distances. So if you’re rolling the dice and hoping the worst does NOT happen, knowing good and well that once the reaction gets to a point, there is NOTHING anyone can do but get away and wait for the worst. Or, if the data indicates a temperature rise, these cars can be breached and evacuated (Vent & Burn) to prevent a catastrophic failure with massive consequences. The V&B is not free of consequences; however, that plume following the V&B that caused such a panic was picture-perfect. We want the hazards to go up and dissipate into the atmosphere, rather than remain at ground level . Remember, our objectives are LIFE-PROPERTY-ENVIRONMENT. This does not mean we do not care about the environmental impacts. It just means people and property come before environmental impacts.

This theoretical analysis shows the distance that would have received catastrophic damage had a car catastrophically failed.

— Not Actual — Developed for Planning Purposes only —

Scenario Characteristics

  • CHARM Model used (https://www.charmmodel.com/)
  • 105J300 VC Railcar
  • 27,600 gallons instantly released by pressure rupture of railcar
  • 48ft tank length, 9.9 ft tank diameter (Greenbrier Pressure Tank Car Specs)
  • Explosion overpressure
  • Railcar pressure – 225 psi (safety valve rating of 105J300)
  • 27,600 gallons released
  • Detonation (flame speed Mach 1) occurring < 1s after vapor release
  • BLEVE Radiation
  • Depicts thermal radiation as a result of fireball from full vapor detonation

CLICK HERE for the full study

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