Since the train derailment in Palestine, OH, on February 3, many have heard the statistic…
More than 99.98% of rail hazmat shipments reach their destination without a release caused by a train accident.
Source: https://www.aar.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/AAR-Hazmat-Fact-Sheet.pdf
That statistic may very well be accurate; however, without understanding the definitions used, there could be some padding in the calculation. But let’s assume the 99.98% is 100% accurate, it tells ONLY HALF the story. Risks have to take into account BOTH the frequency and the severity of events to be an accurate reflection of the real risks. The 99.98% stats are the pure frequency with no discussion of the seveirty of consequences of the 0.02% of shipments.
So looking at the 0.02% of accidents, what is the SEVERITY of those rare accidents?
This is very much like the risk we see in process safety; in fact, the “Baker Report” in 2007 points out the flaws of looking at risks improperly. The Baker Report was a deep dive into process safety after the BP Texas City accident and how businesses rested on their injury rates to indicate how well they managed catastrophic risks. It was a common practice back then, and many businesses still do it today. However, an injury rate is a very poor indicator of how well a business manages its process safety and catastrophic risks. A low injury rate does not mean catastrophic risks are under control. In fact, in many of these chemical incidents, injury rates for the organization are extremely low. The rail industry also likes to remind us that the Class 1 railroads have injury rates under 1.0.
So much like this stat regarding 99.98% of HAZMAT shipments, it reflects the frequency of the events and NOT the severity. I do NOT have a breakdown of the 0.02% of these incidents to be able to establish the frequency in which derails rise to the level of the Palestine, OH derailment, but some of these derailments are catastrophic. So although they are rare, one has to consider both the frequency and severity of these events to be an honest broker of statistics.
This article is a fair piece on rail incidents. https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2023/02/09/did-train-wrecks-spill-hazardous-chemicals-near-your-home-look-data/11197948002/
An interesting bit of data from the article states:
Over the last five years, federal inspectors have flagged 36% more hazmat violations compared with the five years prior – and fines for those are up 16%. One reason for the increase, however, may simply be improved accountability by agency inspectors. A 2016 audit by the Department of Transportation’s Inspector General’s Office found that inspectors were issuing lax penalties for violators of hazmat cargo regulations and failing to refer bad actors for possible criminal prosecution despite agency requirements.
…
Not only was Friday’s incident relatively rare, so too are deaths from incidents involving hazmat cargo rail cars. The last reported death from a hazardous material on a train was in 2011. A railcar loader in Kentucky was “splashed with 95% sulfuric acid while finishing the final stages of the pressure check before releasing the tank car into transport,” according to an incident report filed with the Transportation Department.
SPECIAL NOTE: the H2SO4 loading incident would not have even been included in the 99.98% statistic because the railcar was not officially in “transportation” at the time of the accident.