This is from the IAEA but can be applied to any high-risk operation. As safety professionals, we have seen all five of these phases, and many of us have lived through almost all of them! Knowing the challenges before allows us to formulate a better improvement plan. Knowing which phase your facility(s) is in is a MUST!
What stage is your facility in?
WARNING! It is important that declining performance be recognized in the first two (2) stages and, at the latest, by early Stage 3.
| Stage 1 | Overconfidence |
This is brought about by good past performance, praise from independent evaluations, and unjustified self-satisfaction. |
| Stage 2 | Complacency |
In this phase, minor events begin, and inadequate self-assessments are performed to understand their significance singly or in total. Oversight activities begin to be weakened, and self-satisfaction leads to the delay or cancellation of some improvement programs. |
| Stage 3 | Denial |
Denial is often visible when the number of minor events increases further, and more significant events begin to occur. However, there is a prevailing belief that these are still isolated cases. Negative findings by internal audit teams or self-assessments tend to be rejected as invalid, and the programs to evaluate root causes are not applied or are weakened. Corrective actions are not systematically carried out, and improvement programs are incomplete or are terminated early. |
| Stage 4 | Danger |
Danger sets in when a few potentially severe events occur, but management and staff consistently reject criticisms from internal audits, regulators, or other external organizations. The belief develops that the results are biased and that there is unjust criticism of the organization. Consequently, oversight groups within the organization are often silent and afraid to make negative assessments and/or confront the management. |
| Stage 5 | Collapse |
Collapse can be recognized most easily. This is the phase where problems have become clear to all parties, and the regulator and other external organizations need to make special diagnostic and augmented evaluations. Management is overwhelmed and usually needs to be replaced. A major and very costly improvement program usually has to be implemented. |
